The Gun Lobby’s Influence Over GOP Nominating Contests Has Collapsed

Two congressional Republicans from opposite ends of the ideological spectrum—at least when it comes to their relationships with gun rights groups—are facing voters in heated primary campaigns this May.

The first, Kentucky’s Representative Thomas Massie, is one of the so-called “Second Amendment purists” in Congress. He writes bills the gun rights groups love.¹ He takes every meeting with them.² He headlines their conferences.³ He boosts them on social media.⁴ And the feeling is mutual. The NRA amplifies his advocacy in Congress.⁵ The National Association for Gun Rights called him the “GOAT”⁶ and “THE best 2A vote in Congress’s history.”⁷ Gun Owners for America praised him as “a patriot and a hero for defending our Second Amendment every day.”⁸ The organization even begged other members of Congress to “Be like Thomas Massie.”⁹

So what did that career-long devotion get him when he fought for his political life? Some texts, some emails, and a $2,000 PAC donation.¹⁰ That’s it. These gun rights groups say he’s their hero, yet they didn’t run a single ad on his behalf. They didn’t even max out. With “friends” like these, it’s no surprise that Massie lost his primary last night.

The other Republican facing a primary election this May is Texas Senator John Cornyn, who is loathed by gun rights groups. After he worked across the aisle to craft 2017’s Fix NICS Act and 2022’s Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, they declared Cornyn public enemy number one. They promised to make his primary election a referendum on these alleged betrayals. The National Association for Gun Rights called Cornyn “the most anti-gun Republican in Congress.”¹¹ Texas Gun Rights declared “It’s time to send a message: No more backroom gun control deals. No more Cornyn’s [sic].”¹² It added, “Cornyn’s defeat would send a shockwave through the Republican Party.” Meanwhile, Gun Owners of America declared “There’s no reason Texas shouldn’t have an A+ senator representing them… Anti-gun votes have consequences.”¹³ The Firearm Policy Council exclaimed “Cornyn has made his position clear. Let’s show him how loud we can really get.”¹⁴

Turns out, these groups didn’t get loud at all. Despite signaling that taking down Cornyn was the gun rights movement’s top priority, the leading organizations have been absent from the Texas Senate primary campaign. A couple quiet endorsements. One donation.¹⁵ No ads.

You may be thinking, “Even if organizations don’t influence primaries, I’m sure there is a large and influential Second Amendment voting bloc. This is Texas, after all.” Actually, no.

The gun lobby promised that Cornyn’s work on the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act would sink his primary. We set out to test that and found something surprising: It didn’t impact him at all. Texas Republicans have many reasons to oppose Cornyn, but the data shows his work to stop shootings isn’t one of them. Just 5% of voters even remembered hearing anything about it during the campaign. (A number that would surely be higher if Paxton’s research said attacking Cornyn over guns would work. It clearly didn’t.)

Republican primary voters are weighing many factors when deciding how to vote, but few prioritize the gun lobby’s critiques. Not only were gun rights ranked #10 out of 11 options we polled, Paxton was only winning that group with 51% of the vote. We measured seven different attacks against Cornyn, and got the same result again and again. Ads that focused on his resistance to the SAVE Act, support for amnesty, his “betrayal” of Trump, or being a RINO were significantly more effective than the two gun-related attacks we tested. It’s no surprise Paxton’s team didn’t invest more there.

Cornyn may very well lose the runoff—he probably will—but it won’t be because of his work to reduce gun violence.

Here is the underlying policy reality: Republican voters—even those who defected to Paxton—support every major provision of the 2022 bipartisan gun bill, with majorities ranging from 64% to 90%. (For the poll truthers: Trump’s approval among these voters was 85%, versus his 48% statewide average per RCP.¹⁶ 67% of respondents report being either gun owners themselves or living with a gun owner. This was not a sample dominated by moderate Republicans.)

The full polling memo is available here.

To America’s elected Republicans:

You already know that extreme gun laws are unpopular with the voters you need to win tough elections. You’ve also likely been told tales of the gun lobby’s political power by those who came up in a different era. Those days are over.

2026 is showing, beyond a doubt:

If you’d like to learn more, get in touch. Many of your colleagues already have.